True or False?
The correct answer is False. There is no way of knowing what the investor should do without information about the forward price of the franc in terms of the mark. If the 180-day forward price of the mark is above FF 2.5 at, let us suppose, FF 2.8, the investor should sell the mark short because he could buy the marks necessary to fulfill the contract at the time the contract matures for 3 francs less than he would be contracting now to sell them for. If the price of 180-day forward price of the mark is below FF 2.5, he should sell the franc short---he could buy francs in 180 days for less marks he can contract in advance to sell them for.
The main point here is that the potential expected profit from speculation depends on the difference between the forward rate and the spot rate that is expected to rule on the date the forward contract matures. The speculator commits to selling a particular currency in the future at a price in terms of a base currency that is agreed upon now, hoping to be able to purchase that currency spot when the time comes to deliver it at a price below the agreed-upon forward selling price. The actual profit realized will depend on the difference between the agreed-upon forward price and the actual spot price at the future date specified in the forward contract.
Note that the spot price on the date the forward contract is entered into has no bearing on the speculative position, if any, that one should take. There is no reason for it to be the same as the forward price. Indeed, the difference between the forward price and the spot price on the day the forward contract is struck, taken as a proportion of the spot price---defined as the forward discount on the base currency---is determined by the market's assessment of the future time path of the spot price, together with the risk involved in taking a forward position.